In my last macro update posted on 10 April 2019 I shared my bearish expectations. I count the drop off the top made at 78.54 in October 2018 into the low at 43.59 in December 2018 as the first leg down in the wave ( A ) of ( 5 ). The rally that followed had a corrective A-B-C structure and looked like a bull trap set up by wave ( B ) up.

There is mounting evidence on the micro scale that the rally in wave ( B ) up has topped. From here we have two alternative bearish paths. 

The blue path implies a direct drop to a new lower low under the lows reached in 2016. The alternative red path implies a drop to 52-48.50 and then another rally in wave C of ( B ) up.