Crude - ready to drop

Let me start with explaining why I am long-term bearish on Crude oil. Please have a look at a weekly chart I posted below.

I count the 39.16 low made in Feb 2016 as the bottom of wave ( 3 ) down. A top at 77.94 reached in Oct 2018 then was wave ( 4 ) up. The following drop into a low at $42.99 reached on 12/28/2018 was the bottom of wave (A) of ( 5 ) down. And the rally we have been in since Dec 2018 is a corrective wave ( B ) up. It is nearly impossible to predict a path for that wave ( B ). From here we can drop in wave B down retracing anywhere from 50% to 100% of the rally we have seen this 2019 year. Now lets zoom-in to 45 min chart.

Crude - weekly chart updated on 3 March 2019.

I can count clear five waves up off Dec 2018 low into the top reached on 2/4/2019. We may be in a corrective wave B down of ( B ) up. To complete that wave B down we need to get its final subwave c down.

Another more bearish alternative is that the rally off Dec 2018 low is all of a corrective wave ( B ) up and we may soon see a start of another decline in a large wave ( C ) of ( 5 ) down targeting a new lower low under theĀ 39.36 low reached in Feb 2016. That would be the very final decline in crude. As soon as we get full five wave down move making a new lower low we will start preparations to catch the bottom.

Crude - 45 min chart updated on 3 March 2019