Crude Oil - the rally of the wave ( c ) of ( iv ) should stretch higher

Crude has been following my count nicely. I managed to nail last two bottoms making good money in the process.

I count the $49.41 low made on 29 Nov 2018 as the bottom of the wave ( iii ) down. Off that low I expected a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) up structure. We started the final wave ( c ) up at noon on 6 Dec 2018. That wave ( c ) up should be shaped as an impulsive wave up subdivided into five micro waves. So far we have got either all of wave iii up or only the first leg of that rally in subwave a of iii up.

Ideally that wave ( c ) up should stretch at least to 100% extention of the wave ( a ) of ( iv ) up which implies a target at 55.25. However, more common extention of wave ( a ) of ( iv ) up would be 123.6% which implies a target of 56.47.

In both cases that wave ( c ) of ( iv ) up does not look completed and needs at least one more rally. When two alternative scenarios imply a move in one direction that is a high probability tradeable scenario in my book.

Once it tops the situation will get complicated. If that rally manages to stretch to 58.30 I would be confident to say that it was all of the corrective wave ( iv ) up. However, if that rally stops at 54.96-55.25 that (a)-(b)-(c) move off the low would look too small for all of wave ( iv ) up. In that case what we can get is another corrective move down (added in magenta color on the chart below) in larger wave B down and then another rally that would finally target at least 58.20 area.

 

Crude Oil - 45 min chart updated on 9 December 2018

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