Crude Oil - still expect a rally but first we may retest the November lows

I still maintain the opinion that the pullback we saw off November low was only the first leg up in wave ( a ) of ( iv ) up.

My initialĀ  expectation was that the rally started last Thursday on Dec 6th would extend higher and would be the final wave ( c ) of ( iv ).

However, I was wrong and it seems like it was an ugly wave b of ( b ) of ( iv ). Then we are in the wave c of ( b ) of ( iv ). And that c may get all way down to retest the low of the wave ( iii ) made on 29 November 2018. Moreover, it can even slightly undercut that low to run stops of bulls. After such a panic drop we still should see a strong rally targeting at least $55 ( see the red target box on the chart below).

Crude Oil - 45 min chart updated on 12 December 2018