Crude oil - this wave ( b ) up has already retraced 76.4% of the last drop

As long as it stays under 53.64 I count this move up as a corrective wave ( b ) up and expect another decline in wave ( c ) down to a new lower low. I keep saying that waves b are barely predictable both in terms of their depth and shape. That is why I sit on sidelines and wait for another decline to load on UWT if oil tags the green target box. If crude gets over my critical resistance at 53.64 the bearish game is over.

Crude oil - 45 min chart updated on 9 January 2019