Subscription: Crude Oil & Nat Gas
Crude - three alternative scenarios
I have not been posting micro updates on Crude Oil because I see too many alternative macro scenarios here.
I will discuss three main scenarios below. All of them are long term bearish expecting new lower lows to come under the low reached in 2016. All three scenarios treat the top made at 78.78 in October 2018 as the top of wave ( 4 ) up. And all the scenarios count subsequent impulsive looking drop as wave ( A ) of ( 5 ) down. It bottomed at 43.83 on December 24, 2018.
Scenario 1 – “Bearish” assumes a corrective wave “B” up topped at 67.03. And this scenario treats this last rally as wave B up of 3 down. That implies Crude may strongly drop from here in the strongest part of the decline in wave C of 3 down. That target may target 46.85 – 43.70.
Crude Oil - "Bearish" weekly chart updated on 7/9/2019
The second “Bearish Whipsaw” count assumes that wave ( B ) up has not completed yet. That count means Crude got stuck in 46 – 66 range for several more months.
Crude Oil - "Bearish Whipsaw" weekly chart updated on 7/9/2019
Finally, the third scenario is “Bullish” one.
It counts this rally started off a low made at 50.84 on 6-5-2019 as an impulsive rally in wave C of ( B ) up.
Unfortunately, from time to time we get into tricky and hardly predictable waves B of higher degree. That is the least predictable part of any Five Wave fractal. When I have so many alternative counts I normally do not trade a chart until I am left with only two main counts and they point in one directions.
Crude Oil - "Bullish" weekly chart updated on 7/9/2019
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