GDX – my bearish count is most likely dead
I had a very clean count that considered the to made by GDX at 31.84 in Feb 2020 the top of a corrective wave ( 4 ) down.
Then GDX dropped hard to 16.18 and that drop looked like a perfect subwave ( A ) of wave ( 5 ) down.
Off that low I expected to get a corrective looking pullback in subwave ( B ) up.
However, it has been rallying hard and now has approached the previous Feb 2020 top.
This move up down not look like wave ( B ) up at all.
Technically speaking, GDX still holds under resistance level at 31.64 ( the previous high) but because that move up was super strong and did not have a-b-c structure I can not be sure that that resistance level will hold..
The problem here is that I do not see any good alternative bullish count.
GDX - Weekly "Original Count" chart updated at 2-20 PM on 4-13-2020
Let’s assume for a moment that GDX made a lasting bottom in Feb 2016.
Let’s assume it was the bottom of the impulsive Five Wave Down fractal.
Then off 2016 low we may expect a large corrective (A)-(B)-(C) down structure.
Then the A-B-C structure off the Feb 2016 low can be counted as wave ( A ) up.
Off the top made at 31.84 in Feb 2020 GDX should get a corrective looking correctibve wave ( B ) down.
That wave ( B ) down should have A-B-C structure.
The drop we saw in March 2020 did not have that structure.
GDX - Weekly "Alternative Count 1" chart updated at 2-20 PM on 4-13-2020
Let’s discuss another alternative count that is similar to what I have for Gold.
That current rally may play a fake breakout over the previous top made by wave ( X ) up at 31.84 in late Feb 2020.
However, that count suggests that such a breakout would be short-lived and would be followed by a corrective decline in wave B down that could retrace substantial part of that rally.
GDX - Weekly "Alternative Count 2" chart updated at 2-20 PM on 4-13-2020
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