$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup
Today I will update two bullish counts shared in my previous update posted on June 20 and June 27.
On June 20, 2023 I shared that scenario:
This is how that chart looks like now:
That wave count considers that decline as the second leg down labelled a subwave (c) of wave (iv) down.
There are two high probability targets for a subwave (c) down.
The first one is 4,402, a 76.4% ext of the subwave (a) down.
The second less probable scenario is extension of the drop down to the 100% ext of the subwave (a) down = 4,372.50.
Under that bullish scenario, a test of 4,402 could be followed by another strong leg up targeting 4,600.
(2) Scenario 2.
On June 27, 2023 I shared that bullish scenario:
This is how that wave count looks today:
Under this wave count, ES-mini made an important low this morning and has started a new leg up targeting 4,585.
Month Opening Range strategy.
For ES-mini today was the forth trading day of a month. However, if we disregard the shortened holiday session then today will be the third trading day of a month. In that case the Month Opening Range would be 4,494 (Monthly Resistance) – 4,419.50 (support).
That range would affect trading over the following four weeks.
Bears need to break under the morning low to turn intramonth trend down.
A countertrend move during the first three trading days of a month does not mean much.
In fact that is a typical repeating pattern:
Note a 3 day bounce up at the beginning of March. It got erased over the following four trading days by a drop to a lower low.
Note a 3 day pullback at the beginning of April. It got erased by a new rally during the following four trading days.
Note a 4 day pullback at the beginning of May. It got erased by a new rally into the middle of May.
So until bears manage to break the Thursday morning low (the monthly support) the Month Opening Range strategy argues for resumption of the rally targeting new higher highs.