ES: Two Paths to 4,600

$ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #weekend update

In this update I will explain two wave counts that have been helping us to successfully navigate that rally.

(1) We will start from a micro bearish wave count / scenario.

On June 20, 2023 I shared that scenario:

ES-mini 240 min chart posted on June 20, 2023

That scenario allowed bulls to stop the decline in a subwave a of wave iv down at the green box, turn ES-mini back up and produce a rally to re-test the mid June high.

This is how that 240 min chart looks like now:

Bulls pushed ES-mini up off the green box and re-tested the mid June high.

That wave count allows bears to turn ES-mini down and push it back to the Green Box. Such a push down would complete a corrective a down, b up, c down structure and set a stage for another strong rally in a wave (v) up targeting 4,600.

(2) Bullish scenario.

On June 27, 2023 I shared that bullish scenario:

ES-mini 240 min chart, the “Bullish” scenario posted on June 27th, 2023

This is how that wave count considers that rally we got on Thursday-Friday lastweek:

ES-mini 240 min chart, the “Bullish” scenario

It is possible that a micro wave iii up topped last Friday.

Let’s zoom-in to a 15 min chart:

ES-mini 15 min chart, the “Bullish” scenario

We can get a whipsaw consolidation i a range 4,500 – 4,460 during the upcoming week.

If bears fail to break under the first micro support 4,485 bulls will step in and push it higher during pre-market and re-test the Friday high during the shortened trading session on July 3rd. Then I would expect to get the second leg down in a subwave c of wave iv down on July 5th targeting 4,474 – 4,468.50.

But that consolidation shown on the 15 min chart above should be followed by another rally over 4,600.

To invalidate both long-term bullish counts bears need to break the critical support 4,368. Until that happens bulls will remain in control and up will still be the path of the least resistance.

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