$ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #weekend update
In this update I will explain two wave counts that have been helping us to successfully navigate that rally.
(1) We will start from a micro bearish wave count / scenario.
That scenario allowed bulls to stop the decline in a subwave a of wave iv down at the green box, turn ES-mini back up and produce a rally to re-test the mid June high.
This is how that 240 min chart looks like now:
Bulls pushed ES-mini up off the green box and re-tested the mid June high.
That wave count allows bears to turn ES-mini down and push it back to the Green Box. Such a push down would complete a corrective a down, b up, c down structure and set a stage for another strong rally in a wave (v) up targeting 4,600.
(2) Bullish scenario.
This is how that wave count considers that rally we got on Thursday-Friday lastweek:
It is possible that a micro wave iii up topped last Friday.
Let’s zoom-in to a 15 min chart:
We can get a whipsaw consolidation i a range 4,500 – 4,460 during the upcoming week.
If bears fail to break under the first micro support 4,485 bulls will step in and push it higher during pre-market and re-test the Friday high during the shortened trading session on July 3rd. Then I would expect to get the second leg down in a subwave c of wave iv down on July 5th targeting 4,474 – 4,468.50.
But that consolidation shown on the 15 min chart above should be followed by another rally over 4,600.
To invalidate both long-term bullish counts bears need to break the critical support 4,368. Until that happens bulls will remain in control and up will still be the path of the least resistance.