$ES #ES-mini futures
The primary Less Bullish scenario allows bulls to make one more push higher to tag the target 2 = 4,239.50.
But more often than not bulls do not get perfect completion of rallies simply because too many traders who missed the main part of a rally get convinced about bullish prospects when it rally gets exhausted. Over the years I saw hundreds of cases when a five wave up or down structure would terminate without making the final micro move that was supposed to produce the ideal completion.
Below I will share two bearish counts I watch here. Under those two bearish counts ES-mini can be considered having topped:
(1) Bearish count 1:
The majority of scenarios I watch argue that ES has hit a strong Supply zone and most likely we will get ES rejected at this zone. The bearish scenario 1 argues for a pullback down to 4,125. That decline would complete a bullish Running Flat a-b-c down consolidation and set the stage for the real breakout over 4,200.
(2) Bearish Expanding Triangle:
Under the Expanding Triangle scenario bears may produce a spiky strong decline down to 4,035, the Yearly resistance-turned-support in the final subwave e of a corrective wave -b- down.
(3) The Least Bullish and the Most Bearish scenario:
This is the scenario that we have been closely watching (shown at the start of that update):
Paradoxically, to complete the Less Bullish and the Most Bearish scenario bulls really need to push ES to 4,240-4,260. Without that final push up bulls would leave an unfinished business above. Without that final spiky exhaustive move up we can not expect a very strong drop afterwards.
if bulls fail to push ES-mini up to 4,240-4,260 we should consider either bearish 1 or bearish 2 scenario as our new primary wave count.