ES - O Brother, Where Art Thou?

I think it’s a good time to zoom-out and understand where ES is on a macro level. 

This current major rally started at the lows of March 2009. ES bottomed then at 520!

Off that low the price has been perfectly followed the legacy five wave up fractal. I count the top made at 2,956.50 in September 2018 as the top of the wave 3 up. Then we say a corrective decline shaped as A-B-C in wave 4 down that bottomed at 2,322.25 on 26 December 2018.

The wave A of 5 up that started in December 2018 should not be able to take out the Sep 2018 top on a sustainable basis. The wave A of 5 normally stalls a lit bit under or over the top of wave 3 up. Once the current wave A of 5 tops out we will get a corrective decline in wave B of 5 that may retrace up to 61.8% – 76.4% of the rally started in Dec 2018. And then, finally, we should get the very final rally in wave C of 5 targeting a new all time high well over the price level reached in Sep 2018. Now scroll down to loot at a model structure of the rally off Dec 2018 low.

On the chart below we may study a perfect model of a rally in wave A of 5, the rally we have been in since Dec 2018 lows. The top at 2,812.75 reached on 3 March 2019 may be a top of the wave ( iii ) up. And then we got a perfectly looking corrective move down in wave (iv) down that bottomed at 2,726.50 on 8 March 2019. Off that bottom we should get another (a)-(b)-(c) move up to a new high. That move would finally complete the rally in wave A of 5 started in Dec 2018 and set stage for a large pullback in wave B of 5 down (see the chart above ).

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Now lets look at the actual chart and study a structure of the rally started in Dec 2018. The first chat has the count we have just discussed above.

Just to remind you: The top at 2,812.75 reached on 3 March 2019 may be a top of the wave ( iii ) up. And then we got a perfectly looking corrective move down in wave (iv) down that bottomed at 2,726.50 on 8 March 2019. Off that bottom we should get another (a)-(b)-(c) move up in wave ( v ) to a new high. That move would finally complete the rally in wave A of 5 started in Dec 2018 and set stage for a large pullback in wave B of 5 down.

ES - 120 min chart "Primary Scenario"

However, I like the count below better. Under that “bullish” or “ideal” count we have not topped in wave ( iii ) up off Dec 2018 low. And the previous pullback that bottomed on 8 March was a minor pullback of a smaller degree in wave iv of ( c ) of ( iii ). 

Both scenarios assume continuation of the pullback we started yesterday. And both scenarios suggest to buy lower levels in that pullback. Because under both scenarios we should get at least one more rally on both scenarios.

ES - 120 min chart "Bullish Scenario"

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