$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave
Yesterday bulls had a breakout setup that allowed them to start an accelerated phase of a rally. However, they tested the 6,800 level, the Monthly Resistance but soon bears manage to defend it pushing ES-mini back under that important level of resistance.
Yesterday I published an additional intraday update at 10-56 AM warning you:
“This morning bulls failed to break over the Monthly Resistance 6,800.
if ES breaks under 6,774 I would take all the bullish bets off the table!”
That failure made me re-count the whole rally off the April 2025 low:
ES-mini 240 min chart
On the chart above you can see a long (i) up, (ii) down setup (completed in April 2025) followed by a five wave up rally in a subwave (a) of wave ( iii ) up (completed in June 2025).
Upon completion of a five wave up rally we always expect a corrective three wave down move making a higher low. We can see that -a- down, -b- up, -c- down pullback that bottomed on June 22nd, 2025. I labelled it as a subwave (b) down of wave ( iii ) up.
Now the newly detected low made in late June 2025 in a wave (b) of ( iii) becomes our new starting point. From that low we need to get a five wave up move (an impulsive wave)in a subwave (c) of wave ( iii ) up.
We ALWAYS expect the second leg up in a subwave (c) of wave ( iii ) up to be longer and stronger than the preceding leg up in a subwave ( a ) of wave ( iii ) up!
ES-mini 240 min chart
On the chart above you can see a five wave up structure off the low made in late aug’25 (see the wave -ii- down ).
Now note that ES has stretched so far only to a 76.4% extension of (a) of ( iii ) up! That rally can NOT be counted as all of a subwave (c) of wave ( iii ) up.
That wave count argues that we shoudl not expect a huge drop right here but rather a flat corrective structure in a subwave -b- down.
The first solid support for -b- down will be a 33.3% retracement = 6,676 (see teh upper edge of the Green Demand Zone).
That wave count argues that upon completion of that micro a-b-c- down pullback into the Green Demand zone the rally shall resume and accelerate in -c- of -iii- up targeting 7,050.