$ES: Bulls Have a Setup to Break Over Monthly Resistance

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$ES #ES-mini #Month Opening Range #breakout #long setup

ES-mini has formed a new Month Opening Range for October 2025:

Monthly Resistance for October is 6,800

Monthly Support for October is 6,705

Yesterday in the weekend update I shared a very bullish scenario.

This morning we have got a complete looking micro -a-b-c- down structure that can be considered a completed micro wave -ii- down. Bulls can trigger that bullish scenario we discussed yesterday:

ES-mini 10 min chart

Long Breakout Setup: Now a break back over 6,794 should trigger a strong rally.

published at 2-55 PM EST

ES-mini 10 min chart

ES stalled at the breakout level of 6,794.
That’s typical behavior during a rally. Interestingly, it paused right at the 76.4% extension of the micro wave (i) up, which marks the minimum target for subwave (a) of wave (iii) up. I call that level the “test/failure level” for bulls. Its like do or die level for bulls. They need to break over the 76.4% extension of the wave -i- up with gusto to prove that the accelerated phase of a rally has really started.

Normally, we expect subwave (a) of wave (iii) up to reach higher — around the 100%, 123.6%, or even 138.2% extension of wave (i) up.
However, I’ve noticed a recurring pattern lately: sometimes subwave (a) of wave (iii) up ends early at the 76.4% extension, and the next leg higher — subwave (c) of wave (iii) up — compensates by stretching further. Specifically, a subwave -c- of wave -iii- may stretchh up to 223.6% extension of the shortened subwave -a- of wave -iii- up.

Take a look at the RTY chart below:

RTY-mini 120 min chart
On the RTY chart you can see that the subwave (a) of wave (iii) up was very short, followed by a tricky a–b–c correction shaped like a Running Flat.
The (b) wave made a higher high — a failed attempt by the bulls to prematurely launch wave (c) of (iii) up.

If ES-mini mirrors that same corrective a–b–c pattern shaped as the Running Flat structure, inside wave (b) down of (iii) up, we could see more whipsaw action around the Monthly Resistance near 6,800 before the expected accelerated rally takes off.

The ideal scenario on a micro scale here is to get a small push down setting up a bear trap.
Then a strong break over 6,794 would close the trap and leave short sellers behind.

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$ES: Looks Ready For a Breakout

$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #ElliottWave ES keeps consolidating building a base under the key resistance 6,794: ES-mini 10 min chart

CastAwayTrader October 7, 2025

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