ES: Bears Have a Setup to Turn ES Down

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$ES #ES-mini futures #trading setup #wave C down

Yesterday bulls hit the Red Target box under the Bullish scenario:

ES-mini 30 min chart

The can push higher into the Red Box to tag the Target 2 = 4,106.25.

Note that the morning inflationary data confirmed that inflation persists and bulls do not have data to support that final spike up. If we get a strong drop during the first three trading days of April but bull manage to stop it at 4,000 that would be an attractive long setup, a -i- up, -ii- down structure, a launchpad for a strong rally in a wave -iii- up.

Now lets look at the bearish scenario:

ES 13,500 tick bar chart, “bearish” scenario

The bearish scenario consider the whole rally as a corrective wave -x- up shaped as w-x-y structure, a combination of several interconnected a-b-c moves. That corrective structure looks completed.

As I explained yesterday, analysts practicing the traditional Elliott Wave theory may consider that structure as a completed Ending or Leading diagonal. A completed leading diagonal is normally followed by a strong decline targeting the starting point of the diagonal.

In conclusion, both scenarios I watch consider the structure of this rally completed. Today is the first trading day of March and big funds may hold the market because of “window dressing” effect.

But we normally see heightened volatility during the first three trading days of a new month. Quite often when the preceding month ended up on a bullish note and culminated with a spike to new highs, the first two or three trading days bring in a countertrend fake move down that then gets erased during the 4th, 5th or 6th trading days of a new month. You can read more about Month Opening Range strategy in my blog. Please subscribe to free updates!

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$ES: Bears Have A Clean Setup

$ES #ELLIOTT WAVE #trading setup #short setup Bulls squeezed a slighly higher high on Thursday. But ES closed back under

CastAwayTrader May 9, 2025

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