$ES #ES-mini $NQ #FOMC
To keep alive the potential for one more push higher bulls will have to stop the leakage at the green demand zone:
ES-mini 240 min chart
Let’s zoom in:
ES-mini 15 min chart’
Scenario B: Breakdown: If bears manage to break the key support 6,579 the next target 1 would be 6,510.
I can see a micro path that fits the Scenario A: Bullish: One More Push Higher
ES-mini 15 min chart
Let’s look at a micro count in NQ-mini:
NQ-mini 120 min chart
Bulls in Control, But Bears—Stay Alert
If you’re bearish, it’s time to be patient—because the chart currently looks decisively bullish. But that doesn’t mean you should walk away from the screen. In fact, you now have a viable Scenario B developing, and it could evolve quickly.
As I explained yesterday, every major drop starts with the invalidation of a microstructure setup. Typically, we see a -i- up / -ii- down pattern emerge right after a strong rally. This structure often looks forced—like bulls are just going through the motions—especially when bears aggressively short the rally and nothing happens initially.
The market then puts in a shallow a-b-c correction near the top—a classic sign of distribution. Sometimes bulls even manage to push for a marginal higher high, squeezing out late shorts. At that moment, many bears give up. Price action seems to confirm a strong base for another five-wave rally to the upside.
But this is exactly when the trap can spring. Some unexpected news hits, and price breaks sharply below the low of that a-b-c distribution zone. That break invalidates the -i- / -ii- structure and sets the stage for a deeper correction.
🎯 For bears, the key level to watch now is 23,300. A clean break below that support could trigger Scenario B and shift momentum.
Until then, the bulls hold the upper hand and have room to push the Nasdaq (NQ) much higher.
Stay sharp. The next move could come fast. Today is the FOMC Day. The market will be waiting for the statement to be released at 2.00 PM EST. Then the second catalyst of the day will be FED Chairman Powell press conference at 2.30 PM EST.
published at 3-42 PM
ES has perfectly played the micro path!
ES-mini 15 min chart
it spiked up in c of -b- up, then it plunged in a subwave -c- down into the Green Demand Zone and completed the whole -a- down, -b- up, -c- down structure of the wav e-iv- down.
The corrective -a-b-c- down structure built a base for a five wave up rally targeting the Red Box (see the path published this morning).
Now bulls made a micro push up in a micro wave i up.