$ES #ES #Elliott Wave #trading signal
Two days ago I shared with you the accelerated Very Bullish scenario:
ES-mini 30 min chart
I noted: “Now a break back over 6,155 would trigger a rally up to 6,256.“.
Today ES has arrived at the target . Let’s update that Very Very bullish scenario.
But before we need to have a look at the primary much less bullish scenario:
ES-mini 240 min chart
ES has finally hit the yellow target box. That wave count considers that move up as the final subwave (c) of wave (v) up that completes the five wave up rally off the April’25 low. That wave count allows bears to produce a corrective (a) down, (b) up, (c) down pullback.
But that does NOT means its a great short setup.
Apparently we are dealing with a strong impulsive move up and this is why bears are at disadvantage here. Bears are losing the game because they fight the bullish trend. How do you short a move like that? You can only reliably short a bounce in a subwave (b) up making a lower high. So you will most likely miss the first move down in a subwave (a) down.
The big problem for bears is that Very Bullish scenario that allows bulls to push ES much higher in a blow-off top move:
ES-mini 30 min chart
That alternative Very Bullish wave count argues is that the rally off the April’25 low has not topped but rather started an accelerated phase of the rally in a subwave (c) of wave ( iii ) up.
ES-mini 30 min chart
Basically that rally should make a pause at that same yellow box shown on the primary wave count shown above:
It all depends on what kind of a bearish reaction we will get off that target box.
If we get a very weak flat consolidation off that box that would be a strong sign that we are in that very very strong acceleration phase of the five wave up rally and the next move up would quickly push ES mini up to 6,600.
To negate that scenario bears need to push ES down strongly in a subwave (a) down to 5,960.
Here we can see first signs of potential rejection off the lower boundary of the yellow target box:
ES-mini 30 min chart
We have been expected bulls to push ES up to the Gann’s projection 6,240. Today ES has tagged 6,239.
As I mentioned in the morning report: It all depends on what kind of a bearish reaction we will get off that target box.
The key level of support is the Daily Resistance for Sunday = 6,205.
If we get a very weak flat consolidation off that yellow target box that would be a strong sign that we are in that very very strong acceleration phase of the five wave up rally and the next move up would quickly push ES mini up to 6,600.