$ES #Running Flat #rally extension
Overnight, ES dipped to key milestone support at 5,928 before rebounding sharply to test the Monthly Resistance at 5,999.
We are now at a critical crossroads. If bulls can reclaim and hold above 5,999, we will count the quick overnight a-b-c drop as a subwave -c- of a corrective wave (b) down within a larger wave (v) up structure. That would open the door to another impulsive five-wave advance — subwave (c) of wave (v) — off the overnight low targeting a new higher high:
ES-mini 30 min chart
To trigger that bullish scenario we need bulls to break over the 5,999 Monthly Resistance and provide us with a micro i up (done) and ii down starting long setup.
Let me show you an updated big picture 240 min chart:
ES-mini 240 min chart
Essentially the macro wave count does not change. We can just get an extension of the rally in the wave A of 5.
Previously I shared the Gann’s projection that pointed up to the target 6,164. That bullish wave count would make it possible for bulls to hit the Gann’s target at 6,164!
Plan B: Bulls fail at 5,999 Monthly Resistance:
ES-mini 30 min chart
As I mentioned above, ES-mini starts the day at the crossroads. If bulls fail to reclaim the Monthly Resistance 5,999 then we should expect another a-b-c move down to complete a corrective wave B down of larger degree.
Those are two key levels of the month drawn by my free indicator for TradingView:
ES-mini 15 min chart
Failure of bulls to reclaim the 5,999 level would open the door for bears to test the Monthly Support 5,867.
This afternoon bulls failed big time when they failed to defend the 5,999 level.
That makes the bearish scenario the primary path for the next week.
Under that wave count, a strong bounce we got on Friday morning was a wave -x- up. Off the lower high made on Friday we can get another a-b-c move down in the wave -y- of B of 5.