$ES: Bulls Can Re-test the 5,700 Resistance

  • CastAwayTrader
  • August 18, 2024
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$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup

My bullish path (posted on Friday open) argues for bulls to keep pushing ES-mini higher to tag the mid July high made by the wav e(iii) up:

ES-mini Daily chart

A rally in a subwave (a) of wav e(v) up normally has a an impulsive five wave up structure with a shallow micro wave -iv- down:

ES-mini 30 min chart

(i) straightforward uber bullish scenario:

Under an uber bullish micro count/ scenario the subwave -c- of wave -iii- up, the strongest and accelerated part of a five wave up rally can climb higher up to the confluence of two fibs at 5,622:

200% ext of the wave -i- up, and

138.2% ext of the subwave -a- of wave -iii- up.

Upon completion of the micro wav e-iii- up I would expect a wave -iv- down.

(ii) Alternative micro path (assumes that the wave -iii- up has topped):

Alternatively, the wave -iii- up might have topped already but because it has not hit the target, the subwave -b- up of wav e-iv- down tries to finish the job extending higher at least to test the strong resistance 5,596.

In that case we shoudl get a strong straight line drop in a subwave -c- of wave -iv- down off the 5,596 – 5,600 resistance in a subwave -c- of wav e-iv- down. And that drop would become a bears’ trap that would set the stage for another leg up in a wave -v- up.

ES-mini 30 min chart

Under that tricky scenario, after the next push up stops at 5,600 we should expect a drop in a subwave -c- down. A test of 5,600 followed by rejection should be followed by a quick and strong drop to one of three levels of support. The most bullish case is when that drop gets stopped by bulls at 5,565 (the most bullish Running Flat scenario).

The next strong support would be 5,553.

The most tricky scenario will be so called Expanded Flat structure, where the subwave -b- up makes a new higher high (around 5,600) and then it followed by a strong drop in a subwave -c- down that undercuts the low made by the previous leg down in the subwave -c- down (bottomed at 5,536.50).

The most tricky Expanded Flat scenario would trigger a very bullish failed breakdown pattern that is loved by trading algos that rule this market.

In conclusion: Es-mini remains in buy every dip mode. Bulls can push ES-mini up to 5,700 or slightly higher in a subwave (a) of wave (v) up.

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