$ES: The Friday Pop Could Be A One Day Wonder

$ES #ES-mini #trading setup

Let’s start from a macro update of daily charts of S&P 500 cash index and ES-mini futures:

S&P stretched to a 138.2% ext of the previous leg up, the normal target for a subwave (c) of wave (iii) up. If wave (iii_) up has topped then we should expect a pullback in a wave (iv) down at least to 5,000.

I have the very same wave count for a Daily chart of ES-mini futures.

Last week we got a negative bearish reaction off that important 138.2% ext = 5,268 that formed a cluster with a 200% ext of the wave (i) up.

Now let’s zoom-in to a micro 90 min chart of ES-mini:

I count the short covering rally last Friday as a failed rally to turn into a corrective wave -x- up, a premature attempt to start a new leg up. I expect another a-b-c down move that can test 5,000 level and complete the wave (iv) down. Note, price just came back up to the lower edge of the broken upward sloped price channel.

5,235 is the key level for the upcoming week. That is the level of the Monthly Support for April. Break under that level would open teh door for a larger move down at least until the mid month.

The weekly trend is down because we are staring a new week UNDER both weekly support levels.

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