$ES: A Bullish Corrective Bounce is Under Way

$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #a-b-c up bounce

I keep watching two macro scenarios on a weekly chart of S&P cash index:

The main difference between the bullish blue path and the bearish red path is how far this move up off the upper demand zone can go. My primary scenario is the red bearish one. I expect the rally off the upper green box to fail. SPX cash index: If this move up stops at 50% – 66.7% retracement (4,472 – 4,517) of the decline off the July top that would be the critical juncture where bears will be able to turn S&P down and start a new larger leg down.

Note those levels for ES-mini futures will be slightly different (4,494 – 4,541):

As you can see on that 240 min chart I expect this move up to be structured as an -a-b-c- up structure where both legs, waves -a- and -c- may be shaped as micro a-b-c’s. The first resistance is the declining red trend line. Most likely bulls will NOT be able to break over that level at the first attempt. Ideally after this resistance is tested we should get a flat a-b-c down consolidation that can test that broken resistance from above turning it into a support.

That would be a long setup to ride another leg up in a wave -c- (see the green arrow).

BONUS: Short-term path:

Bulls have a setup to produce one more leg up targeting 4,418+.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access

More To Explore

$ES: Leaking Down to a 80 Day Trough As Expected

$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave Today the US stock market is closed. Let’s review the overnight decline in ES-mini futures. ES

CastAwayTrader June 19, 2025

$ES: This Consolidation Builds a Base for Another Rally

$ES #ES-mini #triangle ES continues to consolidate in a narrow range squeezed in between of two contracting trend lines: ES-mini

CastAwayTrader June 18, 2025

Important Disclaimer

CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.

Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.

An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.

You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.

Past results are not indicative of future profits.