$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave analysis
(1) The Very Bullish scenario:
Yesterday bulls stopped decline right at the edge defending the key 4,118 support.
Today we got a move up that could be considered a micro wave i up of a new rally.
In the previous update I noted that bulls would have a problem getting over resistance 4,170. On Thursday bulls tested 4,170 today but failed to break over that level from the first attempt.
If bulls manage to stop this aftermarket pullback at 4,145-4,134 we will get a bullish i up, ii down setup for a rally up to 4,220.
Let’s zoom in to a micro 10 min chart:
Bulls have a setup to start a rally right from here.
ES Daily Resistance – turned – Support for Friday is 4,140.50. As long as bulls hold ES over that level this bullish setup will be valid. Break under that level would be a very bearish sign. Therefore we can consider it the key support for overnight session and tomorrow. 4,170 remains the key resistance.
To trigger that bullish setup I want bulls to push ES over 4,170 tomorrow morning. Moreover, that setup requires bulls to start pushing it up overnight and approach 4,170 level by the open of the morning trading session”. Break under 4,137 would make this bullish setup much less probable and would be an argument in favor of a bearish scenario.
(2) Bearish scenario.
Until bulls manage to push ES over 4,186 this bearish wave count would be a feasible scenario:
That scenario would work if the deal on ceiling debt would not be resolved until June 1 and the market would lose hope. That lack of certainty may trigger panic selling with a drop down to 4,035-4,030 (200 MA Daily). Then the deal will be announced and the market would produce a strong short lived spiky move up to a new higher high. That final short squeeze rally would get brutally faded and a new large leg down would finally begin.