$ES: Bulls Have to Defend the Clean Long Setup with 400 pts Upside

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$ES #long setup #ExpandingTriangle

Please note that Tradestation switched from Dec’25 contract to Mar’26 contract. This is why price levels on my chart have changed.

Last Friday we got a quick drop down to the Monthly Support 6,805 (Dec’25 contract).

The Monthly Support for Mar’26 contract is 6,864.50:

ES-mini Mar’26 contract, Month Opening Range levels

As we discussed on Friday, that drop can be counted as the final subwave e of a complex corrective a-b-c-d-e down structure of the Expanding Triangle pattern.

ES-mini 120 min chart

That wave count considers the Friday drop as the final drop that completed a corrective structure of the subwave -b- down of wave -iii- up. It allows bulls to start an accelerated rally in a subwave -c- of wave -iii- up targeting 7,300+.

But Its critically important for bulls to hold ES-mini over 6,864.50 for Mar’26 contract (6,805 for Dec’25 expiring on upcoming Friday), the solid Monthly Support. As long as bulls hold ES-mini over the said monthly support the bullish scenario will be my primary scenario.

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