$ES $SPX: MACRO BEARISH Scenario Becomes the Primary One

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$ES $SPX #Running Flat

Last Friday we got a huge one day drop that sliced through a number of strong support levels:

ES-mini 240 min chart

Then we got a huge pullback that pushed ES back into the key Monthly Support 6,680. A broken support turned into a resistance:

ES-mini Month Opening Range

That is the most reasonable bearish scenario I have that actually allows bulls to produce another leg up after a sharp and deep drop:

S&P 500 Cash Index, 60 min

If the huge rally off the April’25 low into the Oct’25 top was a corrective wave (B) up, then we can expect a strong and directionless drop in a wave (C) down targeting 61.8% – 76.4% extension of teh wave (A) down (see the Green Target box).

That bearish scenario argues the Friday drop was just the beginning of the sharp 10%+ correction.

This is how that same scenario looks like on ES-mini Daily chart:

ES-mini Daily chart

At this point in time I do not see any bullish scenario where the lows made on Friday could be a lasting bottom of some temporary pullback.

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CastAwayTrader January 15, 2026

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