$BTCUSD: Bullish Scenario Argues for a 60% Upside

  • CastAwayTrader
  • November 26, 2025
<<< Back to All Updates
<<< Macro Updates

#Bitcoin $BTCUSD #Macro #longsetup

Very Bullish Wave Count: This drop may complete the wave 4 shaped as a very bullish Running Flat structure.

BTCUSD Weekly chart

There is a viable interpretation of the current structure that treats the sharp decline as subwave C of a larger Wave 4 correction. Two key technical arguments support this view:

  1. The April 2025 decline did not form a full A-B-C structure.
    This suggests that the drop was only the first leg of a larger corrective pattern, not a completed correction.
  2. The rally that peaked in October 2025 failed to reach typical Wave 5 upside targets.
    In other words, the bulls attempted to start a new impulsive leg without building the proper base. Without a full three-wave pullback behind it, that advance lacked structural support and stalled prematurely.

If we classify the April 2025 drop as only wave A, then the October 2025 peak becomes wave B, and the current decline becomes wave C of a Running Flat correction for Wave 4.

Running Flats are extremely bullish formations. They occur when market strength is so significant that wave B exceeds the prior high before wave C completes the correction.

In this interpretation:

  • The current decline completes the A-B-C corrective base required before a sustained Wave 5 advance.
  • Wave 4 would now be structurally complete.
  • Wave 5 has the room — and the macro strength — to extend significantly.

Under this count, Wave 5 has upside potential into the 146,000 – 158,000 range.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access

PrevPrevious$ES: Support Levels for a Pullback Before Rally Acceleration
Next$ES: Keeps Pushing Higher as ExpectedNext

More To Explore

$ES: Keeps Pushing Higher as Expected

$ES #ES-mini #long setup #five wave up rally We have been tracking a strong rally off the green demand zone:

CastAwayTrader November 26, 2025

$BTCUSD: Bullish Scenario Argues for a 60% Upside

#Bitcoin $BTCUSD #Macro #longsetup Very Bullish Wave Count: This drop may complete the wave 4 shaped as a very bullish

CastAwayTrader November 26, 2025

Important Disclaimer

CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.

Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.

An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.

You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.

Past results are not indicative of future profits.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access