$ES #ES-mini #nailed
Yesterday morning I shared the Max pain scenario that allowed bulls to extend a corrective rally to the Red Box drawn on a 5 min chart:
ES-mini 5 min chart posted pre-market on Sep 10, 2025
This is how that chart looks like now:
ES-mini 5 min chart
Then at midday I posted a bullish update with an immediate long setup:
ES-mini posted at 12:00 PM EST on Tuesday, Sep 9, 2025
This morning bulls have pushed ES-mini into the Red Box. That setup and long setup shared in my midday update delivered a quick 40 pts gain.
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Our micro Max Pain wave count considers that move up as a corrective wave -b- up that can be followed by a quick drop down to the broken monthly Resistance-> turned support = 6,516.25.
The nearest support levels are:
A drop to the green box would re-test the Monthly Resistance AND the Mid Line.
I doubt that will happen today BUT it may happen with an emotional spike down in reaction to CPI release scheduled at 8.30 AM EST on Thu, in 23,5 hours.
Would I go short here?
No! Because, on the 120 min chart below you can see that bulls still have room to push ES at least 70 points higher to the Macro Red Box:
ES-mini 120 min chart
I never chase the price. Price is in teh sell zone 3 and I do not want to join the crowd here. I buy when crowd doubts the trend. This is why I coded my newest TradingView indicator MTF Channel Pro:
It clearly shows when (1) what is the direction of the trend, (2) when to open and add to long positions and (3) when its time to cut long positions.
This week we had a clear example of how to apply the Channel Pro indicator.
I added the green arrow to show the moment when price pulled back to the upward-sloping green Mid Line.
In an uptrend, that Mid Line serves as Buy Zone 1.
But there is never a guarantee that bulls will stop a pullback at that line.
That’s why we never commit fully at the first test of any level.
Instead, we watch how price behaves at Buy Zones 2, 3, and 4.
This morning we got a spike up to the Sell Zone 3. Can bulls push ES higher from here? Absolutely!
But Jesse Livermore, the legendary trader from the early 1900s. warned that trying to catch the very top and very bottom of a move is a mistake.
His approach was to wait for the market to confirm the direction, enter once the trend was clear, and exit before the move was fully over.
A classic line attributed to him is:
“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.”
His philosophy was to focus on the middle portion of the move, where probability and safety were higher, rather than straining to catch every last point.
Livermore’s advice was that you don’t need the whole move to profit greatly — the safest and most profitable part is the big middle trend, not the extremes.
if we get a drop down to the Monthly Resistance / the Mid Line I would get interested in going long again in anticipation of another leg up targeting 6,626 – 6,653.