$ES: Dropped as Expected. We Need Bulls to Defend a Weekly Support

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$ES #ES-mini #failed breakdown #bullish reversal

The move up that topped in mid Aug 2025 fell short off the normal targets for a wave ( v ) up, the final push up for an impulsive sequence. This is why I labelled it as a wave (b) up, a failed attempt to produce an impulsive rally.

ES-mini 240 min chart

This is why I keep looking for a scenario that would allow bulls to push ES higher one more time to complete the five wave up sequence off the April 2025 low.

On Monday night I posted a short setup that allowed bears to produce a quick drop down to 6,415:

ES-mini 15 min chart

And bears did exactly what we expected:

ES-mini 15 min chart.

As I noted yesterday, “If we get a strong recovery back over 6,432, that would be a decent long setup for a 200 pts rally targeting 6,629”.

Note that 6,396.75 is the Secondary Support for today.

A Secondary Support level is reserved for strong impulsive intraday moves.

Bears pushed ES-mini under the weekly support. Therefore, bulls need to reclaim that level 6,437.50 to confirm that the weekly trend remains up.

published at 11:51 AM

In the morning report I noticed that bulls could turn the ES-mini back up by pushing over 6,432.

However, we have not seen any attempts to do that.

Today is the first full trading day of September and the Monthly Opening Range is being formed. Traditionally, the first three trading days of a month bring back elevated volatility.

We will get new monthly levels for September at Thursday close. Until then we will be watching Monthly Resistance and support for August:

ES-mini, August’25 opening range

We can see that ES ES quickly approaching the key level, the Monthly Resistance for August, 6,371.

That is a strong level of support. Sustained break under that level would open the door for extension of the decline down to Monthly Support for August = 6,240.

Let’s see what kind of a bounce we get off 6,371 strong support.

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