$ES: Bears Can Push $ES 50 pts Down

  • CastAwayTrader
  • September 1, 2025
<<< Back to All Updates
<<< Macro Updates

$ES #ES_mini #Short Setup #Failed Breakdown

The Friday drop could be counted as a subwave -c- of a corrective -a- down, -b- up, -c- down corrective structure.

ES-mini 120 min chart

That is a very bullish scenario. But in that case bulls can not allow bears to violate the low made at 6,455 on Friday.

That type of a bullish consolidation called Running Flat is normally resolved by a strong short covering rally after a subwave -c- down makes a higher low.

However, we do not see that bullish reaction so far.

That makes me review a less optimistic scenario where bears violate the Friday low.

Let me show you why that scenario would still allow bulls to produce another rally after an initial drop:

ES-mini 15 min chart

We can count the high made on Thursday as a subwave (a) of wave ( v ) up.

We expect a corrective -a- down, -b- up, -c- down structure of the subwave (b) down of wave (v) up off the top made by subwave (a) of wave ( v ) up:

ES-mini 15 min chart

You can see that ES-mini has already played -a- down and a subwave -b- up shaped as a contracting triangle pattern. That micro wave count allows bears to produce a strong move down in a subwave -c- of (b) down of wave ( v ) up.

The idea is that bears van attack the micro support at 6,432 with potential extension down to 6,415), run protective stops left by bullishly inclined retail traders only to turn it back up again.

In conclusion:

  • bears have a setup to break under the Friday low 6,455, push ES down to 6,432, undercut that level and potentially extend decline to 6,415, and
  • If that drop is followed by a strong recovery back over 6,432, that would be a decent long setup for a 200 pts rally targeting 6,629.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access

PrevPrevious$ES: Bulls Have a Setup to Attack the Red Box
Next$ES: Dropped as Expected. We Need Bulls to Defend a Weekly SupportNext

More To Explore

$ES: Dropped as Expected. We Need Bulls to Defend a Weekly Support

$ES #ES-mini #failed breakdown #bullish reversal The move up that topped in mid Aug 2025 fell short off the normal

CastAwayTrader September 2, 2025

$ES: Bears Can Push $ES 50 pts Down

$ES #ES_mini #Short Setup #Failed Breakdown The Friday drop could be counted as a subwave -c- of a corrective -a-

CastAwayTrader September 1, 2025

Important Disclaimer

CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.

Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.

An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.

You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.

Past results are not indicative of future profits.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access