$ES #ES-mini
The break over the macro resistance 5,837.25 is a strong indication that the bullish macro scenario is in play:
ES-mini 120 min chart
That bullish scenario is based on assumption that the early April low was a low made by a corrective three wave down move. That means bulls believe they can produce yet another five wave up rally off the early April low. If we apply a negative -176.4% ext of the 1Q2025 decline we can set a macro target for the whole rally at 7,290. That uber bullish scenario considers this particular rally as a subwave (a) of wave ( iii ) up.
Protective stop for long positions is 5,837.
Break back under 5,684 and filling the gap up would invalidate the bullish scenario and will be the first strong confirmation of the bearish scenario.
We can count the rally in NQ-mini in a similar way:
NQ-mini 30 min chart
Ideally NQ produces a micro pullback in a micro wave -iv- down followed by another push higher to 21,668 – 21,750 in a micro wave -v- of (a) of ( iii ) up.
Once the wave -v- up tops out I will be expecting an -a-b-c- down consolidation. A strong support for that upcoming subwave (b) down of wave ( iii ) up is 20,690.
The lowest level that consolidation can go under the bullish scenario is the upper edge of the unfilled gap up = 20,376.
Note, this rally is shaped as (a)-(b)-(c) up move. At 21,668 price will hit the textbook target for a wave (c) up at a 138.2% extension of the wave (a) up. That setup may attract bears. Its a recurring bearish pattern when price bounces back up in a three wave (a)-(b)-(c) u bounce where wave (c) stops at the 138.2% extension.
Break back under 20,185 and filling the gap up will invalidate the bullish scenario and will be the first strong confirmation of the bearish scenario.
The reaction off that resistance 21,668 would tell us if the bullish wave count is the correct path for a new all time high. What bulls need to see, is a flat and shallow -a-b-c- move down preferably over 20,800 support.
AFERNOON UPDATE – posted at 1-54 PM EST
ES has been consolidating the whole day today and by now we can count enough micro waves to consider the Double Three corrective structure completed:
ES-mini 15 min chart
We can expect another push higher either later today or on Sunday night:
ES-mini 120 min chart
The ideal target for that one push higher is 5,972 – 5,980.
That push up should be followed by another corrective decline in a wave -iv- down back down to 5,837, the breakout level.