$ES: Bulls Have Three Weeks To Burn

<<< Back to All Updates
<<< Macro Updates

$ES #ES-mini #a-b-c up #corrective pullback

After a sharp drop, the ES-mini found strong support in early April. Since then, price action has been forming a large corrective structure composed of (a) up, (b) down, and (c) up waves.

There are two potential ways this pullback could complete.

Scenario 1. Straightforward (Less Probable) Scenario:

📈 Bullish Completion:
Bulls would need to push ES-mini higher one more time to at least 5,667 — the lower boundary of the large red resistance box — to complete the (a)-(b)-(c) corrective pattern.

ES-mini 120 min chart

Zooming-in:

ES-mini 120 min chart

🔑 The critical level to watch for this simple bullish scenario is 5,497.75 — a former resistance level that has turned into support.

  • Break below 5,497.75 would likely invalidate this “one more push up” bullish path and open the door to a more complex correction.

2. More Complex Corrective Scenario:

As noted previously (Friday update):

  • “If we measure the active stage of the decline (see the red arrow), we can see that this wave B up has not lasted even half of the time consumed by the preceding decline yet! That means bulls have much more time for that corrective structure. …“If we understand that the wave B up did not burn enough time then we may assume that this move up can not be the final wave ( c ) up.“

To activate that path bears need to push ES back under teh key resistance 5,497.75:

ES-mini 120 min chart

We can identify two main overhead resistance levels. Even under the second more complex scenario, this rally may stop at 5,586.50 (hitting the resistance inherited from the Natural Year opening range of 2024).

If that resistance level gets broken and then getting re-tested from above, bull will have a chance to push ES-mini all the way up to the resistance set by the Yearly Opening Range 2025 = 5,836. The second level could be the final destination of the subwave (c) of wave B up.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access

More To Explore

Important Disclaimer

CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.

Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.

An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.

You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.

Past results are not indicative of future profits.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access