$ES: MACRO UPDATE: Bounce Up to 5,700 followed by a 2,000 pts Drop

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$ES #Macro #weekend

My Macro wave count is based on the macro bearish assumption that ES-mini // S&P 500 made a lasting top in Dec’2024. Off that top ES-mini produced a five wave down decline.

I count that drop as a wave A down that is supposed to be followed by a large bounce in a wave B up and then we should expect another leg down in a wave C down making a new lower lows.

There are two ways to count that corrective pullback off the low made by the wave A down.

The less bearish scenario shown above counts that pullback as a Double Three (w) up, (x) down, (y) up structure of a wave B up:

ES-mini 120 min chart

Under the Less Bearish scenario shown on the chart above, bulls have to hold ES-mini over 5,251 to be able to start the final forth leg up in a subwave -c- of wave (y) of B up.

Break under 5,251 would make the more bearish micro (a) up, (b) down, (c) up scenario:

ES-mini 120 min chart

Break under 5,251 may be followed by a drop down to 5,110 – 5,000. That drop would be counted as a subwave -c- of wave ( b ) down. Even in that case I would still expect another impulsive rally in a subwave (c) up of wave B up.

In any of those two bearish scenarios I would expect another large leg down in the second part of this year.

🚨 MACRO BEARISH OUTLOOK: Once we get a large (a) up, (b) down, (c) up bounce into the Red Box, that would be a short setup for another large decline in a wave C down targeting 3,800.

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