$ES #ES-mini #topping
This rally could be 99.9% done. You should get very careful playing longs here:
ES-mii 240 min chart
We have been tracking the move up off the April 2025 low as an impulsive five wave up structure. That structure looks very much completed.
Let’s zoom in to a 5 min micro chart:
ES-mini 5 min chart
We got a bullish looking flat consolidation (see the yellow rectangle highlighting that pattern) formed overnight. That is a solid base for another push higher towards the Red Box.
That push up can come as a quick spike to the Red Box followed by a brutal bearish reversal.
6,728.50 is the key support / invalidation level for bulls. Break under that level would most likely signal that the rally has topped. This is where bulls may set their protective stops.
posted at 12:23 PM
That is the last chance for bulls to stop the bleeding and avoid damaging the bullish structure that allows them to tag the Red Box. As long as bulls hold ES over 6,728 they can argue this drop is just a micro wave iv down to be followed by yet another push higher in the final wave v up:
ES-mini 5 min chart
ES has approached a critical support 6,728.
Violation of that level would invalidate potential for another push higher in a micro wave v up targeting the Red Box.
Note that violation of that level would not mean price will accelerate its decline right after the violation of the support. To the contrary, I would expect a bounce off the broken support 6,728 making a lower high.