$ES: Bears Failed to Break the Monthly Support

<<< Back to All Updates
<<< Macro Updates

$ES #Month Opening Range

Yesterday, I anticipated a classic “pump-and-dump” scenario following the FOMC announcement. However, that move didn’t materialize.

Instead, bears re-tested the key Monthly Support at 5,600 — and failed to break below it three times.

ES-mini Monthly Opening Range

Trading is a zero-sum game. When bears fail to push lower, bulls take notice — and counterattack.

As I mentioned yesterday, when bears fail to breach a critical support level, it opens the door for bulls to rally toward Monthly Resistance. Let me remind you: Monthly Resistance is defined as the highest price reached during the first trading days of the month.

ES-mini 120 min chart

Once the pullback to support is confirmed, we can apply negative Fibonacci extension tools, focusing on two key levels:

  • -138.2% extension = 5,722
  • -176.4% extension = 5,757

Note that the -138.2% extension at 5,722 aligns closely with Monthly Resistance at 5,724.75. If bulls manage to break above that zone, the next target becomes 5,757.

For now, I am not changing the bearish wave count. The best setup for bulls would be a failed breakout above the Monthly Resistance at 5,724.75, triggering a powerful bearish reversal.

THE MIDDAY UPDATE posted at 11:53 AM EST

As we expected, ES has popped to the Monthly Resistance 5,724.75

If bears manage to push ES back under that level, that would trigger the failed breakout short setup.

ES-mini 15 min chart

PLAN B “Extension”:

If, conversely, bulls manage to defend or recapture that Monthly resistance level 5,724.75 then we should expect extension up to 5,755, a negative – 176.4% ext.

    Subscribe to Free Updates

    Get Unlimited Access

    More To Explore

    Important Disclaimer

    CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.

    Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.

    An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.

    You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

    Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.

    Past results are not indicative of future profits.

    Subscribe to Free Updates

    Get Unlimited Access