$SPX: Bulls Can Rally to 6,270.

  • CastAwayTrader
  • March 2, 2025
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$SPX $ES #Elliott Wave #trading setup

Traditionally I will start this weekend update from a very big picture looking at a weekly chart of S&P 500 cash index ($SPX):

SPX weekly chart

S&P has been working on a large top of either wave ( 3 ) or wave ( 5 ) up. In any of those cases that top is supposed to be followed by at least a large A-B-C down corrective structure targeting first 4,900 (in a subwave A down) and then 4,000 (in subwave C down).

The million Dollar question is whether S&P has made that top or can squeeze one more push higher before the large 20% corrective pullback starts.

To pin point the exact top we should focus on the very last segment of the rally, the five wave up structure off the Oct 2022 low:

S&P 60 min chart

Let’s zoom-in to a 60 min chart.
Because the drop last week made a higher low, bulls can make a bullish case. They can claim that the drop was a micro subwave -c- of a subwave (b) down of wave ( v ) up. That wave count allows bulls to produce yet another five wave up move targeting 6,270 – 6,300.

The invalidation level for the bullish wave count is 5,773.

Let’s now look at ES mini and that breathtaking short covering rally:

ES-mini 60 min chart

The best way to count that pop is a subwave -c- up of a corrective -a- up, -b- down (Friday morning drop), -c- up rally (the rally that started on Friday afternoon and concluded on Sunday evening). That wave count provides us with the same targets: target i = 5,791 and target ii = 5,752.

Now I will show you a bigger picture on 240 min chart and you will see connection between the bullish scenario for SPX cash index and this micro count of ES-mini:

ES-mini 240 min chart

Note that if we get a drop down to 5,800 in ES-mini, that drop would complete a flat (a) down, (b) up, (c) down corrective structure, a solid foundation for another leg up.

So micro wise, as long as bears hold ES-mini under 6,000 we can expect bears to finish the job they failed to complete last week, I mean testing 5,800 support level.

However, if bulls manage to break over 6,000 – 6,025 that would most likely mean a new leg up has started.



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