$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott wave
Let me explain why I think that 5,646 – 5,656 is a very strong confluence of fibs that forms a strong resistance.
Let’s start from the last major low made in Oct’2022:
We can track the move up that started at the Oct’2022 low as an unfolding five wave up structure.
A year later ES-mini bottomed in a subwave (b) down of wave (iii) up in October 2023.
The normal five wave up structure follows the following proportions:
- the subwave C of wave 3 up normally tops at 138.2% ext of the subwave A of wave 3 up.
In that case, the early April 2024 top stopped slighly higher than 138.2% ext. This is why we can count it as the top of wave ( iii ) up.
Note that that top as made 200% ext of the wave ( i ) up.
If wave 3 up tops at 176.4% ext of wave 1 up we expect the wave 5 up to top at 223.6% ext of wave 1 up.
If wave 3 up tops at 200% ext of wave 1 up, we expect the wave 5 u to extend up to 250% ext of the wave 1 up. The 250% ext of the wave ( i ) up in our case points to a potential top of the wave ( v ) up at 5,646.
In extreme cases, the wave 5 up can extend up to 276.4% ext = 5,808.
Another strong resistance can be found at a negative -138.2% ext of the preceding large pullback from the Top made b the wave 3 up in Jan 2022 to the low made by the wave 4 down at the Oct’2022 low.
That negative 138.2% ext points to 5,656.
This is how I got a tight cluster of fibs at 5,646 – 5,656 that should be strong enough to stop the rally.
Zooming-in:
The main flaw of that count is lack of a clean (a)-(b)-(c) down structure behind the decline in April 2024, the one that is labelled as (iv) down.
This is why I can see a Very Bullish scenario where this rally can still be an extension of the wave (iii) up, not the final wave (v) up:
(2) The UBER BULLISH WAVE COUNT:
Even under the Uber Bullish count the confluence of fibs at 5,646 – 5,656 is a strong resistance.
Zooming-in:
I expect a large pullback off the Red Box with two targets.
Target 1 = 5,510.
Traget 2 = 5,270.
Bears need to break under 5,027, the low made in mid April to confirm that ES-mini made a multi year top under the Normal Bullish scenario. Until that happens we will be considering the Very Bullish scenario where a pullback down to 5,270 – 5,100 would be counted as a corrective wave (iv) down to be followed by another rally in the final wave (v) up.