$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #trading futures
The continuous contract switched to Jun 2024 and it slightly changed the numbers. This is how the bearish scenario looks like:
The bearish count makes a lot of sense to me. Apparently bulls run out of steam and the rally stalled. Later I will show you an alternative uber bullish count that argues that NQ should be in the middle of the powerful rally in a subwave (c) of wave ( iii ) up. However that stalemate is not how price behaves in the middle of the accelerated phase when we are inside the micro wave -iii- of ( c ) of ( iii ). It really feels like NQ is topping here. We can count NQ as having topped in a five wave up rally off the Oct 2022 low. I would count that rally as a subwave A of wave 5 up. In that case we shoudl expect a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) down structure that may retrace 50% or even 66.7% of the rally off the Oct 2022 low. But its equally probable that we get a shallow consolidation that can retrace as little as 30% of the rally. In that case the whole correction may get completed upon testing the upper edge of the large green box.
One thing I learned hard way for over 25 years watching the stock market is that quite often the market does something contrary to what you expect if you focus on your “feelings”. This is yet another reason to stay open minded and keep several scenarios on your desk.
Let’s talk about the uber bullish scenario:
That wave count argues that bulls have a lot of room to push higher:
So far all what bears did is played out yet another flat a-b-c down consolidation, a base for another push higher:
As long as bulls hold NQ over 17,623 stop, bulls have good opportunity to re-accelerate the rally to new higher highs with the target 1 = 19,500.
We can conclude that bears need to push NQ under 17,623 to make the uber count much less probable.