$ES #ES-mini #trading-futures
Lets update two major macro scenarios we have been watching and also have a look at less probable but the most exciting one.
All scenarios are long-term bullish but all argue for an upcoming pullback.
(1) The Running Flat scenario:
Let’s zoom-in:
Under the Running Flat scneario, the Dec’23 – Jan’24 rally can be considred a premature start of a rally in the strongest part of the subwave -c- of wave -iii- up. That can be a corrective subwave -b- up of wave (b) down of wave ( iii ) up.
!! Note that ES-mini has not tagged the strongest resistance for a subwave -b- up, 4,947, a negative 138.2% ext of the preceding pullback, the July – Oct 2023 move down yet.
Therefore, bulls can make a slightly higher high to hit that level before rolling over.
(2) The Most Bullish Macro Scenario:
The most Bullish scenario assumes that ES is in the heart of the, specifically topping in a micro wave -iii- of ( c ) of ( iii ) up and is about to start a pullback in a micro wave -iv- down.
(3) Finally, the least probable but the best in terms of opportunities to trade, is the Ending Diagonal scenario:
In conclusion, ES-mini is testing a very strong confluence of two fins here:
- 4,947, a negative 138.2% ext of the preceding pullback, the July – Oct 2023 move down, and
- 4,913.50, a 100% ext of the Mar – July 2023 rally.
Even under the (2) Most Bullish scenario I would expect a pullback at the very least back to retest the early Jan’24 low ( 4,702) or the upper edge of THE unfilled gap down dated back to Dec 8, 2023 (4,614).
Now Let’s talk about important levels to watch:
To calculate Daily and Weekly support I use my proprietary Cycle Trader Indicator for TradingView.
For Sunday – Monday trading sessions Daily support will be 4,897.
For this coming week the Weekly Support will start at 4,896.
Break under the Daily support 4,896 would finally turn the Daily Trend down.
But until bears push ES under the lower weekly support 4,798 the weekly trend would not turn down.