$ES #ES-mini #trading setup
I think this rally will eventually extend up to 4,687 – 4,717:
But I do not expect ES-mini to get there in a direct way.
Ideal target for the wave -iii- up is 4,639. At the very least I would like it to tag 4,609.
Therefore, the blue path allows bulls to tag the lower edge of the lower red box (the target box for the wave -iii- up).
Then I would expect a corrective wave -iv- down to test the critical and very important support 4,501.
However, from time to time we get a weak subwave -c- of wave -iii- up that tops around a 100% ext of the subwave -a- up = 4,561. When a wave -iii- up stops at a 100% ext of the subwave -a- of wave -iii- up the corrective subwave -b- up of wave -iv- down tries to make a higher high.
Therefore, the black path considers that slow grinding move up as the subwave -b- up that will be followed by a quick micro drop in a subwave -c- down.
As you can see, either bulls manage to push ES slightly higher to 4,609 or not, I expect a shakeout drop that would create a bears’ trap and set the stage for the next strong leg up targeting the upper red box.
Bear need to break under 4,500 to invalidate both bullish paths shown on the chart above.