$ES: Has the First Bullish Bounce Topped?

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$ES #long setup

Normally a corrective bounce after such a strong drop like we did on Friday takes a lot of time and looks quite complex.

This is why I think bulls can produce another push higher:

ES-mini 15 min chart

Note that I still count that rally we got on Monday as a part of a corrective pullback. I do not expect bulls to make a higher high.
Here bulls got a setup to produce one more rally in a wave -c- up targeting 6,747 – 6,771 (see the Red Box). If you go long here I would suggest setting a tight stop under 6,605.

published at 1-20 PM EST

ES-mini 15 min chart

Bulls have been pushing ES-mini up out of the green target box, as we expected in the morning update.

Note that that rally looks like a straight line move without sizeable pullbacks. This is exactly how normally a subwave -c- of a corrective -a-b-c- up structure looks like. That rally should complete a corrective three wave up bounce in a wave (b) up.

Then I would expect an impulsive move down in a wave ( c ) down targeting 6,500 with potential extension down to 6,400.

ES mini 15 min chart

See the macro support levels:

ES-mini 240 min chart

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CastAwayTrader January 15, 2026

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