$ES: Make or Break Long/Short Setup

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$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave

I my weekend update I concluded:

We can move the critical support // invalidation level up to 6,687 (Friday morning low).

As long as bulls hold ES-mini over that level, bulls will be in control and will be able to produce another micro five wave up structure up top 6,780 – 6,800.
Break under 6,687 support would be the first bearish sign, the first confirmation that the structure of the whole five wave up rally off the April 2025 low has completed.

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ES-mini 5 min chart

ES-mini leaked lower overnight as we expected in the weekend update. So far bulls hold ES over the key micro support 6,687. That is a clean long micro i up , ii down setup with a tight stop and clear target (see the red target box).

As long as bulls hold ES-mini over that level, bulls will be in control and will be able to produce another micro five wave up structure up top 6,780 – 6,800. The

Plan B: An invalidation of a micro bullish i up – ii down setup is a great short setup. Bears need to violate that support 6,687 to confirm completion of the rally and start of a large corrective pullback.

We discussed many times that bears dd not have good chances to turn the market down right before the Quarterly OPEX. Now OPEX is behind us.

The seasonality of the last week of September looks clearly bearish:

published at 3-50 PM EST

Bulls triggered the bullish i up, ii down setup we have discussed in teh morning update (see above).

ES-mini has gained 50 pts since our morning update. It has hit a normal target for a micro wave iii up = 138.2% ext of the micro wave i up = 6,756. If bears stop the micro wave iii up at 138.2% ext and produce a micro pullback in a wave iv down then the final micro wave v up may stretch to 176.4% ext = 6,773 or to 200% ext = 6,783.50.

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$ES: Looks Ready For a Breakout

$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #ElliottWave ES keeps consolidating building a base under the key resistance 6,794: ES-mini 10 min chart

CastAwayTrader October 7, 2025

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