$ES #topping #OMH
ES took a dive into the Green Box:
ES-mini 15 min chart
Under the bullish scenario, we can count that decline as a subwave -b- down of wave -iii- up.
That pullback making a higher low allows bulls to start another rally in a subwave -c- of wave -iii- up targeting 6,619.
Let’s zoom out to a 120 min chart:
ES-mini 120 min chart
Alternatively we can also count the Friday rally as a subwave (a) of wave (v) up and the decline that followed as a subwave (b) down of wave ( v ) up.
In that case bulls can produce a five wave up rally in a subwave (c) of wave ( v ) up that should make a new all time high.
The minimum target for the rally would be 6,567.
That one more push higher would finally allow me to pack my things and relocate to bears’ camp.
One more push higher would perfectly complete the five wave up structure of teh rally that started in early April 2025.
When a five wave up structure gets completed we start to expect a large A-B-C move down, a corrective reaction to the completed rally.
Let’s look at key intraday levels calculated and drawn by my proprietary Cycle Trader indicator:
The key level of resistance for today is the black line, the daily pivot 6,457.25:
ES-mini 15 min chart
The strong rally we got on Friday got followed by a corrective decline. The cycle trader caught two micro short setups, see the dark red “Reload Short” labels/signals.
The key level for today is the black line, the daily pivot 6,457.25.
For opening a long position I would wait for a break over the Daily pivot 6,457.25.
6,429 can be used as a hard stop for bulls.
Note that Friday rally started from break over the black daily pivot 6,402. If bulls fail to break over 6,457.25 that failure would inspire bears to make another push lower to re-test the breakout level 6,402 from above.