$ES #ES-mini #impulsive rally
In my weekend update posted on Sunday I argued that the rally could take a pause once it hits that test level 6,462 – 6,472. Overnight ES-mini topped at 6,457.75, four points off the target.
Under the Very Bullish wave count we should not expect a very strong decline off that Red Box.
At this time we can not rule out that bulls push ES-mini one more high to tag the Red Box. It is possible that overnight high was a micro wave iii up followed by a micro pullback in a micro wave iv down:
ES-mini 15 min chart
That micro count allows bulls to push ES higher one more time to tag the Red Box that starts at 6,462.
posted at 11-11 AM EST
Cycle analysis argues that ES has made a 160 / 80 cycles peak on 120 min chart. That means now we should expect a 160 / 80 trough to be made in coming days.
ES-mini 120 min chart
the last time decline off the 160 top to the 160 trough in early July took 23 bars (each 2 bour) and was shaped as a-b-c:
Decline in early July 2025
If this a-b-c down structure takes the same 23 bars, then we expect a trough to be made on the night from Tuesday to Wednesday or pre-market Wednesday..
Remember, this Wednesday there will be the key catalyst of the month, the FOMC meeting followed by the Chairman Powell press conference at 2.30 PM.