$ES #ES-mini
So far bears have been holding ES under the broken Daily support 6,296:
Price has been consolidating inside the Month Opening Range of July:
So far this pullback looks like a flat and shallow consolidation “through time” expected by the Very Bullish scenario:
ES-mini 120 min chart
Morning Market Outlook
The most straightforward bullish scenario would involve a failed breakdown below the Monthly Support at 6,227, followed by a strong reversal to the upside. However, I’m not convinced we’ll get such an easy-to-trade setup.
Another clean scenario would be a long entry triggered by a decisive breakout above the Monthly Resistance at 6,333. One could argue that ES has already completed a flat a-b-c corrective structure, potentially laying the groundwork for an upside breakout.
That said, I want you to stay mentally prepared for a more complicated path.
For instance, we could see an initial breakout attempt above 6,333 fail (see red path). Such a failure could lead to a swift drop back below 6,333, possibly extending all the way down to test the Monthly Support at 6,227.
Bottom Line:
The recent pullback doesn’t seem deep enough to support a clean breakout from current levels. The broader trend remains bullish, but we may first experience a shakeout before the rally toward the next major target at 6,672 can begin.
Let’s look at a micro tick bar chart:
ES-mini 13,500 tick bar chart
It is possible that we completed the wave (a) down and the wave (b) up would pop up over the Monthly Resistance 6,333 to a negative -138.2% ext = 6,360 only to get rejected strongly, drop back under 6,333 in a wave (c) down.