$ES: The Market Ignores Bearish Sentiment

#ES #Elliott Wave

Despite broad bearish sentiment, ES continues its slow grind upward.

S&P Cash Index 15 min chart

🟢 Key support to watch: Bears need to break below the most recent low (for SPX the low is 6,132, for ES-mini that low is 6,183 – see the chart below) to give us the first confirmation that the rally has completed. Until that happens, bulls remain in control and can push SPX to the top of the Red Box = 6,222 and push ES into the red resistance box starting at 6,294.

ES-mini 15 min chart

Let me remind you, we’ve been tracking two main scenarios:

⚡ Scenario 1 – Very Bullish Continuation

📌 Contrary to the dominant bearish tone, upon completion of that push higher ES might deliver only a shallow and flat a-b-c pullback.
Under this scenario, wave (iii) up is in progress, and we’ve just completed subwave (a) of that advance. Then a flat a-b-c pullback would be a subwave (b) down of wave ( iii ) up, a base for the ext accelerated leg up in a subwave (c) of wave ( iii ) up:

ES-mini 240 min chart

➡️ That Very Very bullish wave count implies a flat consolidation is likely next, forming a higher low in subwave (b) of wave (iii) up.

📊 RSI remains in the overbought zone, signaling that bullish momentum is still strong.
Importantly, there’s no large negative divergence, which we would typically expect at the end of a wave (v) top.

🐻 Scenario 2 – Bearish Correction

This alternate wave count suggests the rally from the April 2025 low was subwave A of wave 5 up, and that leg looks complete.

👉 In that case, we could now begin a corrective structure:
(a) down → (b) up → (c) down, with wave (a) down targeting around 5,955.

ES-mini 240 min chart

This scenario would imply a deeper (a)-(b)-(c) down pullback, although still within a bullish larger structure.

🧭 In Conclusion:

✅ Both wave counts allow for a corrective pullback, although of a different strength and depth.
We need bears to confirm completion of that leg up by breaking under the most recent lows:

for ES-mini the low to get broken is 6,183, and
for SPX the low to get broken is 6,132.

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