$ES: Bulls vs. Bears: One Side Must Blink

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#ES $ES #Elliott Wave #trading setup #Elliott Wave

Weekend Market Update: ES-mini 30-Minute Chart Outlook

Here is the current structure on the ES-mini 30-minute chart:

ES-mini 30 min chart

As shown, I am tracking two alternate wave counts on the chart.

🔴 The dark red labels outline a clean corrective structure:

  • Wave (a) up
  • Wave (b) down
  • Wave (c) up
    The subwave (c) has already developed enough internal waves to be considered potentially complete.

🟢 The bullish alternate suggests a different structure for the move off the early April low:

  • Wave (i) up
  • Wave (ii) down
  • Subwave (a) of (iii) up
  • Subwave (b) of (iii) down

Surprisingly, the decline from the most recent high fits best as an impulsive five-wave structure, which still requires one more leg down in micro wave v to complete.

ES-mini 30 min chart

📉 If we get that final push to a new low, it would strongly support the bearish scenario, which views the entire move up off the early April low as a corrective bounce that has now topped. This view is supported by two key arguments:

  1. According to classic Elliott Wave principles, a completed five-wave decline on a micro scale signals the start of a new downward trend.
  2. From a traditional technical analysis perspective, filling the open gap to the downside is often interpreted as confirmation that the prior breakout has failed.

🎯 The critical support level to watch is 5,738—the upper boundary of the unfilled gap (cyan box). Bulls must defend this level to avoid validating the bearish setup.

🟩 Bullish Validation Level: 5,895
If bulls can push ES above 5,895, that would invalidate the bearish count and strongly support the bullish case.
Such a breakout would imply that the corrective pullback in subwave (b) of wave (iii) is complete and that the market is entering the accelerated phase of the rally in subwave (c) of wave (iii), with potential upside targeting 6,200.

Stay nimble and watch the key levels—next week could be pivotal.

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