$ES: Break Over the Monthly Resistance Triggered a Spike Up

  • CastAwayTrader
  • May 12, 2025
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$ES #ES-mini #breakout #Monthly Opening Range

In my previous update I warned you:

…”PLAN B: If bulls manage to break back over 5,724 I would go long to ride likely extension of the rally with the target 5,819-5,832.“

On Sunday night bulls cracked the Monthly Resistance and that opened the gate for a strong spiky mov eup:

ES-mini Month Opening Range

I kept repeating that a break over the Monthly Resistance 5,724.75 would turn the intramonth trend up and most likely be followed by an extension of the rally.

Note that ES extended the rally by the same distance as the distance between the monthly support 5,601 and Monthly Resistance 5,724.75

The 100% extension of the Month Opening Range = 5,851.25. This is exactly where ES-mini popped up this morning.

Let’s look at the bearish macro scenario:

ES-mini 120 min chart

To keep alive the bearish scenario bears have to defend the macro resistance 5,837.25. Bears have to keep ES-mini under that milestone resistance.

This is a wave count that bulls have been watching:

ES-mini 120 min chart

The price has hit the macro milestone resistance 5,840 and got stalled. Bulls have to break over 5,837.25, the Macro Milestone resistance to confirm that bullish scenario. Under that bullish scenario this rally has to extend first to 5,972 and then up to 6,075.

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