$ES: Bears Failed to Break the Monthly Support

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$ES #Month Opening Range

Yesterday, I anticipated a classic “pump-and-dump” scenario following the FOMC announcement. However, that move didn’t materialize.

Instead, bears re-tested the key Monthly Support at 5,600 — and failed to break below it three times.

ES-mini Monthly Opening Range

Trading is a zero-sum game. When bears fail to push lower, bulls take notice — and counterattack.

As I mentioned yesterday, when bears fail to breach a critical support level, it opens the door for bulls to rally toward Monthly Resistance. Let me remind you: Monthly Resistance is defined as the highest price reached during the first trading days of the month.

ES-mini 120 min chart

Once the pullback to support is confirmed, we can apply negative Fibonacci extension tools, focusing on two key levels:

  • -138.2% extension = 5,722
  • -176.4% extension = 5,757

Note that the -138.2% extension at 5,722 aligns closely with Monthly Resistance at 5,724.75. If bulls manage to break above that zone, the next target becomes 5,757.

For now, I am not changing the bearish wave count. The best setup for bulls would be a failed breakout above the Monthly Resistance at 5,724.75, triggering a powerful bearish reversal.

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