$SPX: That Rally Was the First Leg Up

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$SPX #S&P500 #Elliott Wave

We can count a large (a)-(b)-(c) down move off the mid Dec 2024 high as the first leg down in a large corrective (A) down, (B) up, (C) down structure:

Most likely, that first leg down labelled (A) bottomed on Monday.

Note this update is about the cash index S&P 500, not ES-mini futures. They normally are highly correlated but may have slightly different wave counts.

I count the -a-b-c- up move off the Monday low as a wave (a) up, the first leg up of a normal corrective three wave bounce in a large wave (B) up.

I would expect a corrective -a-b-c- move down off the high made by very strong short covering rally we got on Wednesday.

Once we get an a-b-c move down off the Wed high making a higher low that would be an attractive long setup to ride the second leg of a corrective rally in a subwave (c) of wave B up. That wave B up may top in summer.

Upon completion of that large corrective wave B up I would expect another strong wave of selling in a wave C down targeting 4,000 somewhere in August – October 2025

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CastAwayTrader June 17, 2025

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