$ES: Two Paths Leading Down to 5,000

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$ES #ES-mini #trading setup

The macro count of the Daily chart argues that this move down is a starting corrective wave (iv) down:

ES-mini Daily chart

I expect that pullback to eventually test 5,000 level:

There are two micro paths that can push ES-mini down there:

(i) the overnight move down could be a micro subwave b down (to be followed by another weak bounce in a c up):

ES-mini 90 min chart

So we got an overnight decline retesting the pre-market lows made on hot CPI numbers on Wednesday. That could be either a part of a bounce that digests the strong drop on Wednesday morning. In that case we can get another bounce off the upper green demand zone to complete the subwave b up and set the stage for a strong drop in a subwave c of wave (y) down targeting the lower green demand zone.

Micro path (ii):

Alternatively, this decline could be part of the wave a down that should be followed by a corrective consolidation / pullback in a wave b up

ES-mini 90 min chart

Month Opening Range strategy update:

Bears broke under the Monthly Support 5,235 and turned the intra month down:

When price breaks under the Monthly Support at the beginning of the month, it often keeps leaking down at least until the mid month, a pivotal mid point when price may change its course.

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