ES: Testing the Green Box

$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave

In the previous update we correctly predicted a flat consolidation that would test the Green Box:

We have got a move down to the Green Box:

There are two levels where bulls can stop this decline:

a 30% retracement of the wave iii up = 4,391, and

a 33.3% retracement of the preceding rally in a wave iii up = 4,380.25.

If bulls manage to stop this move down either at 4,391 or 4,380 they will be able to push ES-mini higher at least up to 4,480-4,500. That move down could be a subwave a down of the wave iv down or, alternatively, it could be all of the wave iv down.

The main question here what is the critical support to get broken to confirm that the whole rally off the Oct 2022 completed. In the previous update I explained that there is a chance that the whole rally off the Oct’22 topped.

I think that important support 1 is 4,378.25, a 66.7% retracement of the decline off the Jan’22 top to the Oct’22 low.

Another even more strong support 2 is 4,327.50, the August 2022 top. Interestingly, that level coincides with an unfilled gap up dated back to 8 June 2023.

Bears need to break both levels to solidly confirm a bearish reversal. As long as bulls hod ES-mini over 4,378.25 the bullish “one-more-push-higher” scenario where ES can stretch up to 4,560sh+ should be considered the primary scenario.

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