ES: That Thing Hates Straightforward Scenarios

$ES #ES-mini #trading setup

Bulls keep ignoring good setups that allow them to make the final push higher to 4,340 area. In gerenal that happens with ES-mini very often. It ignores a straightforward easy-to-trade scenario and follows some weird complex paths.

This is a straightforward bullish scenario:

That scenario allows bulls to start a new rally targeting 4,320 – 4,340. To trigger that scenario bulls need to push over resistance 4,281.50.

But I will show you a plan B to make you prepared for what ES could do.

I call that type of alternative scenarios the Max Pain scenario:

ES-240 min chart, the alternative Max Pain scenario

If bulls fail to break over 4,281.50 and then bears push ES under 4,268 we can get a sharp drop like we got from May 20 to May 25 that would be a failed attempt to turn the trend down, a structureless quick drop in a wave -xx- down. ES can quickly drop to 4,170.

And then bulls could turn it up again and start another a-b-c move up transforming a Double Three structure into even more complex Triple Three structure.

The problem for bears is the very minimum target for ES is 76.4% ext of the wave -w- up.

So far the rally stopped at 66.7% ext (4,303). We can make a temporary top at that 66.7% extension but we can not count that as a long term top.

Therefore, that 76.4% ext = 4,340 would keep working as a magnet for bulls…

As long as bulls hold ES over 4,268 they still can produce one more push higher to 4,340 as we expected.

But a break under 4,268 would be a strong argument in favor of that “most painful” scenario.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access

More To Explore

$ES: The Market Ignores Bearish Sentiment

#ES #Elliott Wave Despite broad bearish sentiment, ES continues its slow grind upward. S&P Cash Index 15 min chart 🟢

CastAwayTrader June 30, 2025

$GC: Gold Has a Bullish Setup

#GC #long setup This bullish macro wave count of Gold that considers that drop as a subwave B down of

CastAwayTrader June 30, 2025

Important Disclaimer

CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.

Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.

An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.

You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.

Past results are not indicative of future profits.